The probability of earthquakes has changed following new study

earthquake 2

A new report by the U.S. Geological survey has introduced a new earthquake forecast model that changes the forecasts for magnitude, location, and likelihood as compared to the 2007 forecast model. The most significant change is the likelihood of medium (6.7-8) quakes has decreased while the likelihood of large (8+) quakes has increased. Looking at the entirety of California, the chance of a medium earthquake has gone from one every 4.8 years to one every 6.3 years while the chance of large earthquakes has gone from one every 617 years to one every 494 years. 

The evolution of the California earthquake forecast model has happened as we learn more and more about the complex fault system under our feet. 

As we can see the number of faults has increased twenty fold in the last 17 years. In the 1988 forecast, only 16 faults were considered while in 2015 350 faults were considered to create the model. Much of these recent fault finding efforts (pun certainly intended) were driven by the fact that the 1994 Northridge earthquake occurred on a previously unknown fault. There are two other important things that contributed to this revised forecast, the use of space based geology and the observation that earthquakes jump from fault to fault instead of being constrained to the fault that spawned them. Instead of several major fault-lines, the picture that emerges is of a vast interconnected fault system. 

While the implications for building codes depends largely on where exactly structures are located, there are some important general conclusions we can draw. Tall buildings and bridges are more at risk than previously thought whereas small single family houses are less likely to experience catastrophic damage. Also the popular assumption that small quakes release pressure and make large ones less likely has been revisited to take into account the connected multi-fault system. 

How to Prepare

  • Identify safe and dangerous spots in each room. Get under sturdy desks and tables, stay away from windows, fireplaces, and hanging objects.
  • Conduct Practice drills.
  • Decide where and how to reunite with loved ones if separated during an earthquake.
  • Learn how to shut off the water, gas, and electricity.
  • Get a first aid kit and learn CPR and basic first aid.

During the Earthquake

  • If outdoors, find an open area away from walls, buildings, power lines, and trees.
  • If driving, pull over to the side of the road and stop, avoid areas around power lines and stay in the car until the shaking has stopped.
  • If in a crowded public place, do not rush for the doors. Remain calm and cover your head and neck with arms.

After the Earthquake

  • Do not attempt to use the phone unless there is an urgent life threatening emergency.
  • Check for gas and water leaks as well as damaged electrical wiring. Call utility companies if necessary. Do not attempt to re-light the gas pilot without a thorough inspection.
  • Stay away from downed power lines.
  • Do not use your vehicle unless absolutely necessary.
  • Be prepared for aftershocks.
  • Help others in need.

Miscellaneous Electrical Load (MEL)

Miscellaneous Electrical Load (MEL)  in buildings are electric loads resulting from electronic devices not responsible for space heating, cooling, water heating, or lighting. MELs are produced by hard-wired and “plug-in” electrical devices, including home entertainment centers, kitchen electronics such as microwaves and toaster ovens, bath items such as hair dryers and electric hot tubs, and others such as security systems and ceiling fans.

Early generation phone chargers used a lot of electricity and were also a danger if left plugged into the phone. In recent years chargers for phones and other new electronics like laptops have more energy efficient features like an automatic shutoff and sleep mode.

MEL is estimated to contribute 4-12% of the total household energy usage and while many newer electronic devices will come with energy efficient features, things like refrigerators and microwaves are not replaced often so the likelihood of these devices being energy hogs is high.

The other major contributor to MEL are devices that are always connected to the internet. The increasing use of electronics connected to WiFi for example is only going to increase as we move inexorably towards a wireless world. Internet business experts estimate that by 2020 there will be 50 billion devices constantly connected to the internet. Some of the more futuristic things that will be connected to your phone or the computer chip in your brain are coffee makers, pacemakers, cars, and of course cows.

There are a few proposed solutions, some more feasible and long term than others. TheWhole House Switch is somewhat like a circuit breaker for everything in your house. The idea is that when you go out all the electronics can be switched off all at once. This solution requires some pretty serious rewiring that may not even offset the energy saved.

The best solution is a combination of advances in the technology combined with government incentives to upgrades appliances to the latest energy efficient models. For example, new advances in semi-conductor materials means faster and cheaper energy transmission with little environmental loss. When exactly these scientific progressions will be available for the homeowner is still a matter of some debate.

One short term solution is to put timers on the devices that don’t need to be on all night. I have a timer attached to my TV, modem, and cable box that shuts off automatically at night. Timers can be purchased from Tashman Home Center.

Start Saving Today!

How Realistic is Ocean Front Property in Arizona?

How Realistic is Ocean Front Property in Arizona?

Due to the melting of the polar caps and the various land-based glaciers all over the world, many islands across the globe are in jeopardy of being submerged. This isn’t a “could happen” scenario as Indonesia has already lost more than 20 of its 1500 islands since 2005. It is also projected that the Maldives will be nothing more than a tropical memory by 2050. As these levels continue to rise, could there really be ocean-front property in Arizona within the next century?

Elevation Matters – Arizona’s mean altitude is 4100 feet above sea level. According to NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the levels have been rising at 0.12 inches per year since 1992. However, it has been reported that this has been a 50-percent increase since the recorded levels of the early 1900s. If the sea levels were to continue at just over one-tenth of an inch per year, it would take 410,000 years in order to submerge Arizona. That also is based on a formula assuming that there is no further increase.

Compounded Problems – At the current rate of melting, NOAA is predicting that the water levels will actually rise by six and one-half feet by 2100. This is a calculation based on the exponential rise of the levels over a period of time. This means that the water will rise approximately 83-percent faster than the 0.12 inches per year as stated above. At that rate, Arizona could become a shore-line state in 69,700 years – plenty of time to pack your sunscreen and surfboard.

Melting Polar Caps – When you see an iceberg in the ocean, it may not look very intimidating at first. When you realize that most of these chunks of ice hide 80-percent of their mass underwater, then you can get a better idea of how large they truly are. This inspires the term, “only the tip of the iceberg.” Although this mass displaces the ocean water around it, it’s also fresh water that is contained within those behemoths. When you consider how much ice was at the North and South poles of this planet that is an incredible amount of fresh water being added to the oceans. This doesn’t include the ancient glaciers that are land-based such as those found in Peru, Alaska and Canada.

Fresh Water Induction – Added large amounts of fresh water to the ocean causes changes in how the currents react. In the movie, “The Day After Tomorrow,” this caused massive storms to populate in a matter of days. In reality, that scenario isn’t far from the truth. According to RealClimate.org, there is scientific evidence to support that the Gulf Stream currents have been reduced by 30-percent. These oceanic streams assist in the weather patterns that can be felt globally. This isn’t including the fact that fresh water puts strain on fish and plant life including decreasing overall buoyancy.

Human Made or Natural Evolution? – There is great debate about the ice-melt as being human made or just natural evolution of the planet. We have scientific evidence that can provide stability for either argument. Scientific discoveries have shown humanity that there have been as many as five ice ages in the past 2.4 billion years. Every two to three hundred million years, the conditions are ripe for the planet to essentially freeze itself. Could the melting of the global ice sheets contribute to hastening our next ultimate winter by altering the weather patterns?

Currently, Arizona is safe from becoming a port city. Although the rising sea levels could displace more than 180,000 families by the end of the century, the state’s sheer altitude provides a great deal of protection. As long as the San Andreas doesn’t snap and sink California, Arizona residents won’t have to worry about donning flood pants.

Ken Myers is a father, husband, and entrepreneur. He has combined his passion for helping families find in-home care with his experience to build a business. Learn more about him by visiting @KenneyMyers on Twitter.

Some Space gifs for fun

 

 

 

 

Conflicting results

SeaLevelSatellite2000_12we21

I got some harsh feedback from the last post, particularly because of the idea that sea levels are not rising. The UN hired some scientists to research levels rising and when they found no positive results they were fired and replaced with scientists who found results more in line with the rest of the report.

don’t overestimate our knowledge of the global climate, particularly it’s influences and reactions, very little about the climate is intuitive

the earth is on a much larger time scale, we have existed for the smallest fraction of time and may not be as powerful as we think…I hope not.  Take a look at scenarios showing t what would happen if humans disappeared instantly.

The tides are mysterious, oddly enough in the 19th century we had the tides down to the minute but that’s a secret lost in the modern age.  Perhaps this is because it isn’t necessary  to sail on the tides anymore, I’ve had to do that when a motor broke and it’s quite a pain in the ass.

-we know more about the moon than the ocean

–this is not a reason to think emissions and pollution are not dangerous

at this point all sides of the political debate are throwing out a lot of BS…lots of spin on both sides.

find the studies by Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner, he’s an expert in the field despite the slander of fools.

sea level fall morner

%d bloggers like this: